Election 2024 Poll: Bawumia 49.1%, Mahama 45.8%

A latest scientific survey on the December 7, 2024 elections has put the presidential candidate of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, ahead of the main opposition leader, ex-President John Dramani Mahama.

The research, led by Prof. Smart Sarpong, Director of Research and Innovation at the Kumasi Technical University, said Dr. Bawumia leads the presidential race with 49.1%, while Mr. Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) follows with 45.8%.

The research findings indicated that the independent candidate, Nana Kwame Bediako, is at 2.2%, and John Alan Kyerematen stands at 1.2%.

The remaining candidates collectively garnered 1.7%, the study, titled “Endline Report,” said.

Speaking at a press conference in Kumasi, Prof. Sarpong asserted that the data suggested that the 2024 elections could conclude in the first round, with the NPP having a higher likelihood of clinching victory if gains are consolidated.

“It is clear from this report that elections 2024 can be won at the first round by only one of the two leading political parties, with the NPP having a higher chance of clinching a first-round victory,” he stressed.

Regional Dynamics

He identified Ahafo, Ashanti, Bono, Central, Eastern, North East, and Western Regions as the regional strongholds driving the lead for the ruling NPP.

According to Prof. Sarpong, the data shows that the NDC’s performance is being propelled by Bono East, Greater Accra, Northern, Oti, Savannah, Upper East, Upper West, Volta, and Western North Regions.

Prof. Sarpong urged political parties to consolidate their gains in their leading regions while striving for improvements in other areas to avoid “reverse invasion.”

He stressed that party agents and supporters must remain vigilant to achieve a one-touch victory and spare the nation the cost of a second round of elections.

Parliamentary Race

In the parliamentary contest, Prof. Sarpong indicated that the NPP leads with 128 safe seats, followed by the NDC with 92 safe seats.

The remaining 56 constituencies are highly competitive, with the two major parties likely to split them equally, he added.

Prof. Sarpong stated that the NPP is poised to secure no fewer than 148 parliamentary seats by the close of the elections.

He, however, said independent candidates in constituencies such as Sunyani East, Asante Akyem Central, La-Dade Kotopon, and Suhum are unlikely to pose a significant challenge, as none are projected to meet the required threshold for victory.

Observations

Prof. Sarpong emphasised that all 276 constituencies remain winnable, but additional effort is required in the 56 highly competitive areas.

“More energy is needed for parties aiming to dominate these tight constituencies,” he said, offering to share a detailed list of these constituencies upon request.

Research Design

Prof. Sarpong said the study analysed responses from 99,355 participants across all 276 constituencies, collected through face-to-face interviews between October 14 and November 17, 2024.

He noted that data collection included geographic tagging and environmental observations to enhance accuracy.

Demographics of Respondents

On the key demographics of respondents, Prof. Sarpong revealed that 56.5% of the respondents were male, whilst female constituted 43.5%.

On religious affiliation, he said 69.3% of the respondents were Christians, whereas 24.7% were Muslims and 6.1% constituted other faiths.

In terms of occupation, the research scientist stated that farmers constituted 17.8% of the respondent, artisans were 3.5%, teachers were 5.6%, food vendors 8.3%, and others to the remaining percentage.

Prof. Sarpong underscored the importance of scientific research, stating, “Without quality data, you’re just another person with an opinion.”

Recommendations

According to him, the report also emphasised that with effective voter mobilisation and strategic interventions in key regions, a first-round presidential victory is attainable.

He encouraged the political parties to energise their agents and supporters while focusing efforts on the 56 competitive constituencies.

Prof. Sarpong announced plans to release constituency-specific insights on his Facebook and YouTube platforms.

He expressed hope for a transparent and scientifically informed electoral process, urging stakeholders to engage constructively with the findings.

“Let’s encourage voters to participate in polls. It makes the political process more gratifying, challenging, and thought-provoking,” he said.